It was an experimental week, so you should not judge it depending on its profits or losses.
I did a lot of entries testing some ideas. The main goal was to find if I can trade my idea techinically, without my intervention. Unfortunately (and I’m not even surprised about it), I can’t trade my idea as a robot.
I found that I always lost money when I tried to trade technically, then got them back using manual, intuitive approach. The system itself helps to trade profitably but you still need to find correct entry and exit points. By the way, most part of the last weeks profits were made using intuitive entry point at the end of the week, too.
This week’s turnover was huge: I earned $73 and lost $116. Taking into account my first week profit of about $30, I’m negative about $12 since I started to trade real money, not demo.
On the other side, almost all losses (about 70-80%) this week were experimental. I just acted as a robot, doing nothing even when I clearly felt that it was wrong. Then I made some money back using intuitive approach for finding entry points, then lost yet another portion on technical experiments.
So, what did I find during my experiments?
- I can occasionally catch huge wins. The highest win I got this week was about $40. I was close to catching $55 and I felt that it was right but I refused to do anything (I was a robot) until it was too late. What’s more important is that accumulated losses during this position were something about $10, not more.
- I can’t make random entries into the market and hope that they will be profitable. If I enter in the morning (as I did for 3 days in a row), not at some expected move point, I always got reversal. Losses wasn’t huge but there were plenty of them. These test morning entries were the main source of my overall losses this week. On top of that, being in the wrong position, I missed good moves when they finally happened.
- I should limit number of stops I get for each level. Sometimes market enters a channel which causes some levels to hit stops 8-10 times in a row. You can play with various stop limits at my calculator to see the difference, especially in terms of reward/risk ratio.
- I should wait for big moves, sideways market kills all levels and all profits.
- I found good price levels at odd numbers which don’t get hit by stops too often. As a clue, try something like 19/69. They are easy to enter and track, too.
- I got used to entering the market with stop orders, not in a FOMO mode. I no longer have an urge to enter the market immediately. I just set up pending orders and wait. It’s much better from statistical standpoint because you get filled only when market moves into your direction. The goal is to be positive all time you are in a position.
- I got used to closing plenty of positions with small stops. It was hard at the very beginning but now I no longer feel bad when I see released losses grow. I know that I will get them back later, when I close the final position.
As a conclusion, the idea is great. It enables to get good reward/risk ratio when you find good entry points and wait for enough long to close the position. On the other side, I can’t develop a trading robot which will do the work for me. Speaking honestly, I didn’t believe that it was possible, I just needed to prove it to myself in practice and see it live.
I feel that it’s time to focus on using my trading idea with intuitive entry and exit points. I already proved to myself that it can be effective. The most motivating part was looking at $55 unrealised profit at my terminal 🙂
This weekend I will automate self-training of my setup using simulator, then spend some time polishing entries and exits on historical data.
Next week I will no longer experiment but focus on results. I will trade for a few hours a day, then spend the rest of my time practicing entries and exits in the simulator. I hope that it will finally make the difference 🙂
Here is a screenshot of a chaotic balance curve for this week: